Just like it became fashionable to talk about how early you predicted Charlie Crist would run for U.S. Senate, the new trend is predicting that the race between Crist and Marco Rubio will be closer than most people expect. But everyone is saying it will be closer than most people expect, meaning that most people don’t expect it to be a blowout. I think it will be. Here’s why…
Polling: Current primary polls have Crist in the mid- to high-50s compared to around 10 percent for Rubio. Obviously, Rubio will improve from those numbers, but Crist will too. Some undecideds will take a look at all the candidates and decide Crist is best. Others will reluctantly accept him as the only chance to win the general election. He may lose some here or there, but they’ll be offset by the gains. Worst-case scenario, he stays where he is, which is enough to win.
Name recognition: Crist’s is currently hovering around 90 percent. On primary day, it’ll effectively be 100 percent. Rubio will be nowhere near that. Name recognition is one of the most influential factors in determining someone’s vote.
Money: Crist will certainly be able to raise more money than Rubio. And while money alone can’t win you the race, there is a high correlation between raising more money and winning.
Support: A long list of prominent Republicans will support Crist. Already you’ve had John Cornyn, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorse Crist. Jim Greer, chair of the state Republican Party, has all but endorsed him. Most national Republicans will support him as an incumbent governor. Most prominent state Republicans will, too. That support translates into money and it translates into votes as citizens look to leaders for cues on voting when a decision is tough.
Approval ratings: With his job approval numbers staying high, few people will be willing to take a chance on a newer, younger, less-experienced candidate. People like the job Crist is doing, and they’ll stick with the name they know.
Race: While Rubio’s Hispanic heritage will help him in South Florida, it’ll likely hurt him in much of the rest of the state, particularly in the wake of the hard push on the immigration issue that has dominated Republican politics in recent years. Can you see the people who stood up at the tea parties to complain about immigrants voting for a guy named “Marco Rubio.” I can’t.
Optimism: Times are tough. And when the going gets tough, people want a leader who will tell them that everything will be okay, even if they don’t back it up with anything other than a smile. It worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2006, it worked for…Charlie Crist. It’ll work again.
Most people will readily admit to much of the argument I’ve laid out so far, but they’ll say that I’m leaving out certain details or counter-arguments. Nope. I considered them.
Conservatives dominate primaries: Crist will lose because he’s less popular amongst the conservatives who vote in primaries. Except that he has a 67 percent approval rating amongst Republicans, almost no difference than amongst the general public. Crist is popular among Republicans and many Republicans aren’t conservative or aren’t ideological purists.
Jeb Bush: Crist will lose because Jeb will support Rubio. Bush has a history of staying out of party primaries and even if he gets in, his presence will be outweighed by the numerous other endorsements Crist will get. Plus, Bush is a bad word these days and it may hurt with the average voter, even the average primary voter. Jeb has recently disparaged Ronald Reagan as the party’s standard-bearer, that can’t help.
The Stimulus: Crist will lose because he supported Barack Obama’s stimulus plan. Except that the plan was quite popular, even getting significant support amongst Republican rank-and-file voters. Sure, many hated it, but it was far from universal and many voters will overlook this particular issue because they like Crist on others or think that he’s the best chance at holding the seat. Crist will also be able to make a really good case to the average voter that the economy in Florida is extra bad, so the stimulus was needed here, even if it wasn’t needed by those greedy governors in other states. He can also point to the fact that parts of the stimulus package were rejected by Florida Republicans. I don’t see this one hurting him much. The people that dislike him for it already disliked him and would’ve been Rubio supporters anyway.
Moderatism: Crist will lose because he’s too moderate for the average Republican. Except that any examination of his record shows that he isn’t. He’ll run as a conservative in the primary and most Republicans will buy it just like they have in the past. He’ll talk about going for “solutions” instead of “partisanship” and he’ll gain some votes because of that. Then he’ll emphasize his conservative “values,” and most Republicans will buy it. Besides, this is nothing new. People already think of him as a moderate and they already voted for him and they already give him high approval ratings.
Homosexuality: Crist will lose because of the persistent rumors that he’s gay and because the new movie “Outrage” will remind people of this. Except most Floridians already know these rumors and they don’t care. He’s married to a woman and that’ll be enough for them. The voters of Florida won’t be surprised by anything in “Outrage” and the won’t let something they already know about change their minds. Again, they know already and they’ve already voted for him and they already approve of him.
These are the chief arguments I’ve heard so far and none of them convinces me that Rubio has any realistic shot of winning. Sure, it’ll be a brutal fight that may cause Crist significant damage for the general election, particularly among independents, but in the end, Crist will still win big. I’ll wager that Rubio will have a hard time getting to 40 percent in the primary.
None of this is to say how the general election will turn out, it’s too soon to know that, although you’d have to give Crist the advantage right now (and maybe a significant one), but barring some unforseen events, Crist will be the Republican nominee.
I’m Kenneth Quinnell and I approve this message.
Brilliant. I would argue your points but it appears they have all been answered. I have been convinced. Guess I will spend my summer focused on Alex Sink instead. Yeah right. If Republican moderates don’t show and the turn out for the primaries is under 25%, Rubio has a shot. The big arguement is that the primaries are for the party activists. Which is why even with the money Meek has, he won’t be liberal enough for Democrats in the primary. That opens the door for Gelber and is what you, Koster and Hand are counting on. That being said, it may not apply to the other side. I think if the “Meek is not liberal enough” areguement can win on the Dem side…then the Crist isn’t conservative enough could win on the other.
But then, thats why we vote…right?
Thanks Ken, great post.
It is the conventional wisdom that primary voters are the activists in the party, but it is a mistake to think that Democratic activists are primarily liberal. They are actually pretty centrist, generally speak. And people will claim that Meek isn’t liberal enough, but he has a 90% progressive punch score, which makes him awfully far to the left.
In the Republican primary, far-right conservatives are more likely to show up (meaning they’ll vote at a higher rate than the more moderate people), but they are a smaller percentage of the Florida Republican electorate than people tend to think and Crist will get some conservative votes. Again, he’s already shown that he can win this group, which he did in 2006, and that they like him now, he’s got a 67% approval rating from Republicans, and there are certainly many conservatives in that group.
I agree with your arguments, but I would like to point out that tea party protesters are not largely “anti-immigration”. They are anti- “illegal immigration”. There is a difference there that should not be overlooked.
I’m not sure I believe that. A huge percentage of conservatives argue that legal immigration is too high, also, and many of them will say negative things about foreigners in general. I’ll stick by my statement that the average tea party person is anti-immigrant and will be unlikely to vote for a Hispanic.
Have you ever actually heard Rubio speak? He will win the tea party folks hands down. He is the fiscal conservative they’re really after. Your post relies mostly on popularity and poll numbers and that’s going to change. Jim’s caused bad publicity already with his rule 11 shenanigans.
Yes, I’ve heard Rubio speak. Most of the tea party people, though, will never hear him speak. They’ll just see his foreign name. He’ll win the majority of the tea party people, but it won’t be enough to overcome the base that Crist has. Poll numbers generally don’t change drastically with someone as well known as Crist. His numbers aren’t going to drop much and he’s already got enough to win. Add to that the people in power in the party and the money people are already lining up behind him and Crist is almost a lock.