The big news in Florida politics yesterday was that governor Charlie Crist has decided to forgo a second term in the capitol and attempt to replace Mel Martinez in the U.S. Senate. This is not only important because of the implications for Congress and the governor’s mansion, but for the series of other offices that will be vacated as the dominoes fall because of those attempting to replace Crist.
One of the most frequently repeated comments I’ve seen about Crist running is people saying “see, I told you so, and I was the only one.” But it seems like just about everyone thought Crist was going to run for Senate and few people ever even doubted it. Early on, I had my doubts, but as the legislative session moved forward, I became convinced that he would run.
My thought process was that it made little sense for Crist to move to Washington. He would go from being the high-profile governor from the majority party in one of the most high-profile states to the low-profile and most junior member of the probably permanent (at least while he’s in office) minority party in Washington. For someone who craves power, it’s a bad move. For someone who wants to make a change, it’s a bad move. For someone who craves the public spotlight, it’s a bad move. I figured Crist had some combination of these three things going for him and that he would stay in Florida.
Some argued that Crist was interested in running for president some day, so a move to Washington was a logical step. But it wasn’t and it isn’t. Barack Obama is the exception to the rule. Generally speaking, Senators don’t become presidents, and when they do, it’s almost never directly. They usually take some kind of intervening position in the interim — like serving as governor of a big state. Look back over recent presidents and the job they held before moving to the White House:
Bush: Governor of Texas
Clinton: Governor of Arkansas
Bush: Vice President
Reagan: Governor of California
Carter: Governor of Georgia
Ford: Vice President
Nixon: Vice President, gubernatorial candidate
Johnson: Vice President
Kennedy: Senator
So prior to Obama, you have to go back to 1960 (48 years) to find the last president elected directly from the Senate. Lets just say it’s the road less taken to the presidency. If Crist were interested in being president, governor of Florida would be a much more likely path than the Senate.
So why is he running for Senate?
This isn’t an original observation, a few others have noted it, but it became clearer to me that as the session went on and we saw that the disaster that is the Florida government and economy was only getting worse, that Crist had to get out. Sure, he’s popular now and he gets a lot of credit for “bipartisanship” and for being a “moderate” (things that aren’t really all that true, but that’s a column for another day), but the governance of the state, the budget and the economy are all in a shambles and they are only going to get worse. By many accounts, much worse.
If Crist has future ambitions, he has to get out from under the weight of the state’s failing political and economic system. Even a casual observer could notice that Crist has done a lot to contribute to that failure, but, because of his affable personality and a lax media, he hasn’t gotten credit where he deserves it. As things get worse, though, that’ll change. Unless he’s in Washington. If he stays governor, he’s in trouble and his career will likely end abruptly, even if he gets re-elected. It would be kind of a Nixon-like thing. He won re-election, but you knew his downfall was coming soon after.
If Crist runs — and as most expect, wins — for the Senate, he can paint the picture that he was popular and successful and that it was the legislature or the other members of the cabinet that brought things down while he was running for higher office. Or he can just blame Washington. Or blame imaginary socialists, as is the current trend in his party. But he can make a plausible case to voters who don’t pay much attention that it wasn’t his fault. It’ll be a lie, but it’ll be one he can pull off if we let him.
I’m Kenneth Quinnell and I approve this message.
We have to expose his record. Even the progressive blogs have been touting him as “moderate and reasonable.” Some of the commenters yesterday even said they might vote for him. We should never use the word “moderate” in the same sentence with “Crist” because if we do, we are reinforcing that image.
I think Charlie does better in a collegial atmosphere like the Senate, where everyone works together, or at least parties a bit together. I don’t think he’s lone executive material, at least not in the my-way-or-the-highway Jeb mold. Charlie has charisma but not strong leadership ability. He’s the kind of guy you want circulating at your cocktail party making sure everyone’s having a good time but you don’t want to task him with sending everyone home at the end of the night.
go marco, go…